October 2008 Existing Home Sales
by Tom on November 24, 2008
in Market Musings
Take a look at the graph that I got from Calculated Risk.
The thing that struck me about it is that the only month in the last 4 years where there was a year over year improvement was September of 2008. All of the rest were down from the year before.
The September numbers may signal the beginning of the end! (Or, it may just be “noise.”)
You do this stuff just to irritate me, right?
Seasonally, I’m takin’ the view Nov/Dec numbers won’t be very important either way. It’ll be the entire 1st quarter that may be our best indicator.
No, Jeff, I don’t do it just to irritate you. I do it to show that so far, the trend isn’t moving, on a national basis, in the right way.
I think you are right, November and December will be not very important, and not very good if I might add, and then the first quarter will be interesting to see where that shows things going.
Tom
Not buying it. Your numbers are some of the most reliable in the business, but admit it, it gives you much comfort to know I’m rollin’ my eyes.
As we discussed last week, one month does not a trend make. The rest of the country? It’s irrelevant. Even if times were more or less normal, (Remember normal?) MI, OH, etc. would have been losing ppl to states whose tax policies are more business friendly, creating a more stable job atmosphere. They were before all this started.
It’s OK to irritate me, ‘cuz your numbers are real. That and your ability to translate current events as well as anybody is what sets you apart.
Lord, that hurt.
Don’t strain yourself too much if you’ve got to move a new office this week.
You’re right, one month does not a trend make and for every report there will be some areas that are better and some that are worse. But this report shows 45 out of the last 46 months where the year over year NATIONAL number is lower. That’s not the direction we need them to go.
I hope that the first quarter shows that turning around, but I’m not holding my breath.
Tom
If I’m correct, and we’re about to make use of the almost forgotten Flux Capaciter, the mid to late 70’s is about to be revisited, at least for real estate.
That’s not all bad. We know what happened at the end of ‘79, so we can act accordingly when the script gets to that point.
RE: The whole nation for almost the last four years
The trend was ALREADY showing population shifts away from much of the midwest and northeast to the south and west before this correction. Im not impressed with national real estate numbers — at least to the extent most folks are. It’s made me and my clients money by ignoring the ‘blended’ recipe. The targeted market w/massive analysis worked in the 80’s, the 90’s, and so far at least, now. Time will tell.