Live Tweeting a Nouriel Roubini Economic Outlook Conference
by Tom on October 20, 2009
in Market Musings
I spent an hour and a half on the phone this morning listening to a conference call that Dr. Nouriel Roubini did on his firm’s outlook for the next year (and more.) At the request of my friend Todd Waller, I “live tweeted” it and threw together a bunch of comments as what I “took away” from the call about the economy and it’s impact on housing. I was going to try to write out a more concise version, but I’ve got too much I’m working on. So, I decided I’d just post them all on here. If you want to read them in chronological order, start at the bottom. Keep in mind, this is my “takeaway” of what he said and if I misquote something or misheard something, it might not be totally accurate. If you’ve ever heard Dr. Roubini, he has an interesting accent but it’s sometimes hard to understand.
If you aren’t already and you’d like to “follow” me on twitter, I’m @tvanderwell. Todd is @toddwaller.
Enjoy – sort of.
Tom Vanderwell
- Roubini – scary thing about double dip recession in 2010-2011 – we have no policy bullets left!
- Roubini – risk of a W recession is pushed out until after November of 2010 (gee, what happens in Nov. 2010) politics will prevent it sooner
- Roubini – We see GDP at 1.8% in 2010 – well below standards of 3% plus.
- Roubini – the dollar will continue to weaken – and until we get a global rebalancing, it will continue to struggle.
- Roubini – wealth effect of equity and real estate markets will prevent us from a V shaped recovery. People feel and are poorer now.
- Roubini – housing supply demand imbalance is too big and needs to be adjusted – significant pain will happen while that adjusts.
- Roubini – has housing market bottomed out? price side – nope – close to 50% of people with mortgages will be u/w by 2011.
- Roubini – we’re more bullish on emerging markets than we are on established “high income” countries.
- Roubini – rising risk of protectionism could send us into a double dip recession…..
- @JimDuncan Yep.
- Roubini – $100 oil now is as bad as $140 a barrel was “then.”
- Roubini – oil prices could put us back into a double dip recession
Second Page
- Roubini – total consumption by India and china is 1/6th of what the US consumes.
- Roubini – can China be the engine of growth for the future – No
- Roubini – I love listening to Dr. Roubini’s accent. Just sayin’
- Roubini – mortgage rates will go to 7.5% by 2012 if not sooner.
- Roubinin – by middle of next year, bond market will wake up and say, “We can’t keep adding to the deficit”
- roubini – exit strategy – “damned if you do and damned if you don’t.” (and I quote)
- Roubini – tax credit artificially inflated house sales will wane.
- Roubini – falling home prices will continue – supply and demand imbalance is too big – shadow inventory is too big.
- roubini – capacity utilization is at 70% – ltos of excess capacity will slow capital investment and make it very anemic.
- Roubini – this is not a traditional recession, this is a leverage recession.
- Roubini – many jobs in finance and real estate are gone forever – so fall of unemployment will be slower.
- Roubini thinks that we’re going to have a “U shaped” recovery (50-60%) V shaped 10-20%, and W shaped 20-30% and growing.
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