Mortgage Delinquencies – continuing to climb….
by Tom on October 29, 2009
in banks, house prices
I’ve got to hand it to Foresight Analytics. They didn’t try to spin a “less bad” report out of something that wasn’t less bad.
So what did their report show:
- Delinquencies in mortgages are still climbing.
- The rate of delinquencies has been consistently going up at least 1% per quarter.
I’m going to say it again, until:
- We get a significant turnaround in the jobs situation, we won’t see the trend for delinquencies reverse.
- Until we get a change in delinquencies, we’ll see more and more houses come on the market as distressed properties.
- Until we get a change in delinquencies, we’ll see more and more pressure on house prices.
- An $8,000 tax credit will temporarily forestall some of that, but it won’t change the overall dynamics of what’s happening.
It ain’t over yet, no matter the spinmeisters on CNBC, at NAR, and at the MBA might try to tell you.
Tom Vanderwell
Total delinquencies for first-lien residential mortgages grew to an estimated 11% during Q309, according a report from California-based real estate market consulting firm Foresight Analytics.The final figures for the third quarter are not due until the end of November, but Foresight’s report bases its data on earnings reports and call report filings from banks.
Residential delinquencies increased from 10.2% in Q209 and from 6.4% from the second quarter of 2008, according to the report. Except for a two-percentage point jump in Q408, the delinquency rate rose approximately 1% every quarter since the Q108.
“We have been expecting the rate of increase to slow, but clearly this has not yet occurred,” according to the report.
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