Munching on the Numbers – by Max Whitmore
by Tom on December 9, 2009
in AllMarketsConsidered, Market Musings
Posting has been light today – tied up in meetings. But Max has had some time to throw together some thoughts. Enjoy!
Tom
12-9-09
MUNCHING ON THE NUMBERS
Well, another day of battle closes and the winner was …. well, there is still no winner in this test of the market’s supports. But then, no winner, no loser either. For the moment, the rally folks have held their gains and not flinched. Will they prevail in the end? Can’t tell you for sure, but the longer they hold their ground and the longer the bears fail to get the momentum to break the rally gains, the more the S&P 1220-40 target grows brighter. We finished the day about 5 point up on the S&P from yesterday’s close and still about 45 points above the all important Keyline on the Super Chart.
The market overall was a slight favorite to the bull when you note that oil was down, gold up, and bonds eased only a tad. All told, if this were the Battle of the Bulge (I guess only you old timers would remember that one) this is the lull before the final assault, as I see it. It may be a few more days, but the bears, at least for the moment, need to prepare for an all out assault or go to the sidelines while the market climbs to new, higher levels.
Will the bears win out here? Low volume, dollar troubles, and general worries about consumers coming to the rescue are to their favor. But the bulls have held their ground, knocked down oil prices, and had a really unexpected gift in last Friday’s employment report. I don’t know when the current battle will be over, but it is not far off as see it. I like the bull’s situation – 45 points above the Keyline.
Well, cutting this short today, as I have a church meeting to attend and have to leave shortly. But, kept this thought in the back of your mind. We are a basically a people of a sound character and faith. We might get hit now and then, but we do not give up. The rally the last seven months is a combination of a lot of men and women striving to recover – not giving up. Let it be a testament that despite the “formidable headwinds,” we have prevailed so far. Keep at it! Just keep at it!
Until tomorrow, hope your investing day was a good one. Will be here again tomorrow, Lord willin’ and the creek don’t rise.
NEED SOMETHING TO TALK ABOUT TONIGHT?
SIX REASONS THE MARKET WAS FLAT TODAY
1. Obama wants a second stimulus. Oh, me.
2. The U.S. Treasury wants to extend the TARP. Investors are not so certain that is a good idea.
3. Deloitte LP says their Consumer Spending Index (predicts future spending) is at a 5-year high. No joke.
4. Thing s to come? Bond 10-year auction – weak results. Could higher rates be needed next quarter?
5. So you know: Assets per citizen $242,466; Liability per citizen $345,551 (per USDebtclock.org)
6. Tiger Woods favorable rating continues to fall. Really? Hummmmmmmm.
That last one is the one most likely to get a rise out of your family, friends, whatever. But, #4 is the real one to worry about.
Closes as of Wed. 12-9-09 CHANGE (cash index prices)
DOW Indu. 10,337.05 +51.08 points
S&P 1,095.30 +5.30 points
NASDAQ 2,183.73 +10.74
30 YR BONDS 120 5/32 +15/32
GOLD 1,130.50 +$1.00
OIL 70.84 -$1.80
