Munching on the Numbers – by Max Whitmore
by Tom on December 10, 2009
in AllMarketsConsidered, Market Musings
12-10-09
MUNCHING ON THE NUMBERS
This was “rollover” day for the major futures contracts, meaning that the futures numbers that will apply to most (but not all) futures contracts will be March 2010. Oh my gosh, how can it be 2010!!! It was just 2000! Well, one must adjust to such things. But, believe me when you are over 70, it seems the years don’t fly by anymore, they hit the afterburner!
But, enough of that. It was a better day for the bulls today. They saw the Dow climb another +68 points. If you are a bear, the sweat has to be breaking out on the neck and forehead about now. But, to really claim the resumption of the rally, we need to see the S&P climb over the 1,130-40 level and stay there for 3-4 days. Not yet. So, the bears will fight it out in here for a bit longer. Understand, I am not calling it a victory for the bulls in here, but it is getting tough to be a bear.
Oh, yes. I wanted to pass this along to you, too. A friend of mine in the business sent this along. Go to this web site: http://cohort11.americanobserver.net/latoyaegwuekwe/multimediafinal.html. It is a full color graphic showing how the unemployment from 2007 until today has changed for the whole country. It uses a “rolling graphic” to do it and it is astounding how it chronicles the Jan 2007 4.6% level month by month to the 8.8% in October. Of course, the current 10% is higher, but the graphic will surely put things in perspective for you, and quick.
I have also added copper to my closing prices list today (seebelow), as I want to give you a handle on the commodities without going to the more complex indices that are used for the commodity market. Note that this is a Daily chart.
For years, folks have use copper as a great surrogate for the whole commodity complex. Many call it “Dr. Copper.” What the chart I have attached shows is that since the beginning of this year the price of copper has doubled from about $1.50 a lb. to over $3 and is well above the Keyline. That folks is one of the best inflation indicators you will find anywhere. More on copper in the next few Weekly columns.
But, the bottom line for the day to me is that the bulls are still in the driver’s seat, the bears still backseat drivers, but being listened to less and less. Still need S&P 1,145-50 for a few days, but we just might see it if the bulls can hang on like they have so far. How can you not love this business!! It’s the greats show on earth! A new act everyday!
Well, until tomorrow, hope your investing day was a good one. Will be here again tomorrow, Lord willin’ and the creek don’t rise.
NEED SOMETHING TO TALK ABOUT TONIGHT?
SIX MAJOR IMPACTS ON THE MARKET TODAY
1. Trade deficit fell $3.5 billion on higher export lower oil imports. Overall year down $158 B– incredible.
2. Bond yields rise on poor $13 B 30-yr bond auction –markets fear next 12 mo. refunding needs too big.
3. Americans Net Worth rose $2.7 Trillion (T) last quarter (+2%) to $53.4 T (was $65.3 T 2nd 2007).
4. Foreclosures fell 8% from Oct. to Nov. (RealtyTrac), but still 20% higher than 12 months ago.
5. Only weekly #, but new unemploy. claims up by 10,000. Continuing claims fell by 300,000, however.
6. Gold UP, Dollar DOWN, Bonds DOWN, Oil DOWN,
Hard to figure the rise in American net worth, but that is the report. Hummmmm. And the foreclosure news remains disturbing. I’m sure your friends will agree. And #6 says inflation is still a worry. Oh me.
Closes as of Thur 12-10-09 CHANGE (cash index prices)
DOW INDU. 10,405.83 +68.78 points
S&P 1,102.35 +6.40 points
NASDAQ 2,190.86 +7.13
30 YR BONDS 118 14/32 -27/32
GOLD 1,132.50 +$2.00
OIL 70.48 -$.36
COPPER $3.102 -$.0215
