A History of Home Prices

Just take a few minutes and really look at it.   Really look at the dates, the direction of the charts and what we’re dealing with……

Technorati Tags: Case Shiller, House Prices

Case Shiller – have prices actually bottomed?

CR does a great job (as always) of illustrating by means of charts what the market is really like.   He also summarizes quite well what the big question is…..

Have house prices bottomed?  Or is this something else?

Tom

P.S. I’ve got more thoughts on this in a video over on the “What’s Tom Saying” page……

Calculated Risk: Case-Shiller House Prices increase in July

The debate continues – is the price increase because of the seasonal mix (distressed sales vs. non-distressed sales), the impact of the first-time home buyer frenzy on prices, and the slowdown in the foreclosure process (with a huge shadow inventory), or have prices actually bottomed? I think we will see further house price declines in many areas.

Technorati Tags: Case Shiller, House Prices

More on the Case Shiller Home Price Index

That chart illustrates part of the “problem” for the news.   It’s a very two sided report.   If you look at May vs. June, some of them looked pretty good.   If you look at June vs. June of 2008, it’s not so good.

This chart shows that the rate of decline has reversed itself, but the rate of decline is quite a bit different than an actual increase in property values.

Not trying to be a bearer of bad news, but we need to keep things in perspective.   Are we closer to the bottom in the housing than we were 6 months ago?   Absolutely.   Are we there yet?   I don’t think so.

Tom Vanderwell

P.S. Thanks to Barry Ritholtz for the charts!

House Prices, Case Shiller

House Prices – Down but not so much?

I’m sure we’ll hear more on the details going forward, but the Case Shiller report for May just came out.   A couple of thoughts about it:

• Due to the way they track it, it is considered to be more reliable than the other methods out there.
• The pace of decline is slowing.  Remember the saying, 1 month does not a trend make.
• The year over year numbers are still ugly.

We might be entering the “bottoming” of the real estate prices on a national basis, it’s just too early to tell yet.

I’ll have more on this later….

Tom Vanderwell
Home-Price Decline Eases, Suggesting Stability in Areas – Real Estate * US * News * Story – CNBC.com

Prices of U.S. single-family homes declined in April from the prior month, but the pace moderated, suggesting stability is emerging in some regions, according to Standard & Poor’s/Case Shiller home price indexes reported Tuesday.

Andy Truello

The index of 20 metropolitan areas dipped 0.6 percent in April from March, after a 2.2 percent decline the month before, for an 18.1 percent downturn from a year earlier.

S&P said its index of 10 metropolitan areas declined 0.6 percent in April for an 18 percent year-over-year drop, after falling 2.1 percent month on month in March.

RELATED LINKS

Current DateTime: 06:07:24 30 Jun 2009
LinksList Documentid: 31662044

* Insured Mortgage Defaults Up
* 5 Reasons Housing Hasn’t Recovered
* Short Sales Snafus Hurts Market
* One Man’s Short-Sale Tale
* Track the DJ Housing Index Here
* Realty Check with Diana Olick

The rate of annual decline in these measures has improved, from 18.7 percent for both indexes in March.

Case Shiller

Real Estate is Local – Case Shiller Price Index

But if you look at this chart, it’s all down…….

Case Shiller

More on House Prices

Remember these are January’s numbers, but I don’t expect most areas will see substantial improvements from this trend…..

Case Shiller

Case Shiller Home Price Index

Thanks to Calculated Risk for the chart!

Home Prices

Home prices post record 18% drop – Dec. 30, 2008

Home prices posted another record decline in October, falling 18% compared with a year earlier, according to a closely watched report released Tuesday.

The 20-city S&P Case-Shiller index has posted losses for a staggering 27 months in a row. In October, 14 of the 20 cities set fresh price decline records.

Home prices post record 18% drop – Dec. 30, 2008.

Tom here – A couple of thoughts:

1. This is from October – we’re in January.   It will be interesting to see how November and December compare.
2. 14 of 20 set fresh price decline records.   That’s not a good sign for the health of the market.

We’re out in San Diego having a phenomenal time with friends.   Posting will continue to be light until Tuesday, January 6.

Have a Good New Year!

Tom Vanderwell

Home Prices Tumbled in August – NYTimes.com

The Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller 20-city housing index dropped a record 16.6 percent in August from the year-ago month, the largest drop since its inception in 2000. The 10-city index plunged 17.7 percent, its biggest decline in its 21-year history.

via Home Prices Tumbled in August – NYTimes.com

Is this a bad report?  No, I really don’t think so.   It says a couple of things to me:

1. The adjustment between housing prices and incomes is still moving forward.   We haven’t yet reached the point (on a national scale) where there are enough people saying that housing is cheap enough that we feel comfortable buying a new or different house.   Keep in mind that this report came out in August and a lot has happened since August.

2. While real estate is local, the adjustment to housing prices is not.   All 20 of the cities that count in the Case Shiller index showed price declines.   The rate of decline is obviously different in one area to another, but the general trend is all downward.

3. In my opinion, the biggest differentiating factors between those that are moving downward faster vs. slower are two things:   a) Jobs – the areas with the biggest job losses have seen bigger housing drops and b) Speculation – those areas where the speculation was higher saw prices rise faster and are correspondingly seeing bigger drops.

Stay tuned, I’ll continue to keep you informed.

Tom Vanderwell

2.