14.4% – don’t expect it to get easier to get a mortgage any time soon…..
by Tom on November 20, 2009
in Market Musings, banks
This isn’t a good report. Delinquency rates are up and at the highest level since 1972 (when they started keeping track).
That means that we’re not going to see it easier to get mortgages any time soon.
On a different note – - I’m traveling today (and Monday) – out to Denver for some board meetings. I expect to have a little time to post, but not as much as usual. If I can be of assistance, call me on my cell phone at (616) 292-7559.
Tom Vanderwell
The national delinquency rate on one-to-four-unit residential properties climbed to 9.64% of all loans at the end of Q309, according to a survey from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA). Including the rate of foreclosures, the US serious delinquency rate is at a record 14.4%.The rate of delinquency jumped 40bp from Q209 and increased 265bp from one year ago, according to the survey. It broke last quarter’s record and stands as the highest delinquency rate since the MBA began compiling data in 1972. The delinquency rate includes loans that are at least one payment past due but not loans in the foreclosure process.
Those volume of loans that have entered the foreclosure pipeline accounted for 4.47% of all loans through Q309, an increase from 17bp from the previous quarter. Combined, all loans either in delinquency or in foreclosure reached 14.4%, the highest ever recorded in MBA’s survey.
Technorati Tags: Mortgage Delinquencies
Why Fannie and Freddie Aren’t Going to Make It Easier to Get a Mortgage Any Time Soon……
by Tom on October 31, 2009
in Market Musings
Enough said? Or do I need to say More?
Tom Vanderwell
Technorati Tags: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac
Mortgage Delinquencies – continuing to climb….
by Tom on October 29, 2009
in banks, house prices
I’ve got to hand it to Foresight Analytics. They didn’t try to spin a “less bad” report out of something that wasn’t less bad.
So what did their report show:
- Delinquencies in mortgages are still climbing.
- The rate of delinquencies has been consistently going up at least 1% per quarter.
I’m going to say it again, until:
- We get a significant turnaround in the jobs situation, we won’t see the trend for delinquencies reverse.
- Until we get a change in delinquencies, we’ll see more and more houses come on the market as distressed properties.
- Until we get a change in delinquencies, we’ll see more and more pressure on house prices.
- An $8,000 tax credit will temporarily forestall some of that, but it won’t change the overall dynamics of what’s happening.
It ain’t over yet, no matter the spinmeisters on CNBC, at NAR, and at the MBA might try to tell you.
Tom Vanderwell
Total delinquencies for first-lien residential mortgages grew to an estimated 11% during Q309, according a report from California-based real estate market consulting firm Foresight Analytics.The final figures for the third quarter are not due until the end of November, but Foresight’s report bases its data on earnings reports and call report filings from banks.
Residential delinquencies increased from 10.2% in Q209 and from 6.4% from the second quarter of 2008, according to the report. Except for a two-percentage point jump in Q408, the delinquency rate rose approximately 1% every quarter since the Q108.
“We have been expecting the rate of increase to slow, but clearly this has not yet occurred,” according to the report.
Technorati Tags: Mortgage Delinquencies
Mortgage Delinquencies
by Tom on August 21, 2009
in Cool Charts, Market Musings
Thanks to Calculated Risk for the great charts!
One of the things that I found really interesting about this chart is that FHA is the only loan type where the delinquencies appear to be similar to the percentage of total loans. VA and Conventional are smaller and Subprime is bigger.
Hmmm…..
Tom
Calculated Risk: U.S. Mortgage Market and Seriously Delinquent Loans by Type
A little more information from the MBA Q2 delinquency report:This graph shows the U.S. mortgage market by type. There are about 45 million loans included in the MBA survey, and that is about 85% of the U.S. market.
This is a general breakdown, and apparently Alt-A is included in Prime (it would be helpful to break that out).
The second graph shows the breakdown by type for loans that are either seriously delinquent (90+ days delinquent) or in the foreclosure process. There are about 3.6 million loans in this category.
Clearly subprime is disproportionately represented (much higher delinquency rate), but now over half the loans in this category are Prime – and the delinquency rate is growing faster for Prime. This is now a Prime foreclosure crisis.
Evidence that the housing market isn’t out of the woods yet……
by Tom on April 4, 2009
in banks, house prices
Paul Jackson has the complete story over at HousingWire.com, but there are two signs in the mortgage world that show we aren’t out of the woods……
- The delinquency rates on prime mortgages have more than doubled in the last year. As jobless rates continue to climb it’s going to continue to be harder for people to make their payments.
- The “re delinquency” rates for modified loans continues to be very high. 41% of the loans modified in the 2nd quarter are already behind “again.” That does bode well for President Obama’s big push to turn the housing market around by modifying mortgages.
It ain’t over yet folks. Far from it.
Tom Vanderwell
Prime Mortgage Delinquencies Spike: Report
Less than 90 percent of all mortgages were considered “performing” at the end of 2008, compared with 93 percent at the end of September 2008, the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and the Office of Thrift Supervision announced Friday in a joint quarterly mortgage performance report. Although subprime mortgages (unsurprisingly) showed the highest level of serious delinquencies, prime mortgages posted the largest percentage jump — more than double — from 1.1 percent recorded at the end of March 2008, to 2.4 percent at year-end. Prime mortgages, considered the lowest risk bucket due to inherent high credit score distribution, account for two-thirds of the mortgages examined for the study.Recidivism — or re-default rates — among modified mortgages continues to represent a problem for the industry. The agencies reported that 41 percent of loans modified in the second quarter had fallen at least 60 days behind payments after eight months, a trend that “appeared to continue for loans modified during the third quarter.”
Mortgage Delinquencies…..
by Tom on March 5, 2009
in Market Musings, banks
This isn’t going to help Fannie and Freddie stem the losses any time soon and it’s going to do a couple of other things:
- It’s going to put upward pressure on interest rates because investor appetite for mortgage backed securities is going to be lower.
- It’s going to put ongoing pressure on tightening of mortgage guidelines to attempt to improve portfolio performance
- It’s going to increase the political calls for “foreclosure” prevention initiatives.
Stay tuned,
Tom Vanderwell
MBA: Delinquencies Hit Record 7.88% in Q4 : HousingWire || financial news for the mortgage market
Mortgage delinquencies piled up at record pace in the fourth quarter of 2008, hitting an all-time, seasonally-adjusted high of 7.88 percent of loans outstanding, the Mortgage Bankers Association said Thursday.The delinquency rate, which includes loans that are at least one payment past due but not yet in foreclosure, was up from 6.99 percent in the third quarter and 5.82 percent a year ago. The volume of loans in the foreclosure stage jumped 3.30 percent, also reaching a new record high, according to the MBA’s report.
