What are these guys at Barclays thinking?

Okay, you recall the chart I put up the other day about increasing delinquencies in Fannie’s portfolio?

And you recall the fact that Fannie Mae recently rolled out new guidelines that tightened down their underwriting guidelines (the memo took 20 pages).

And you know that FHA recently announced that they intend to go to Congress by the end of January with rules and changes to bring them back within compliance (that’s a fancy way of saying that they need a LOT more cash).

Oh and on Christmas Eve, the Treasury pulls the Thursday night massacre and essentially hands their checkbook to Fannie and Freddie and said, “Here, take how much you need so that you can stay above water.”

And now Barclays says that in the 2nd quarter of 2010 we’re going to see credit restrictions easing on mortgages?   How is that going to happen?

Oh, it does mention that there is a substantial portion of the population with low loan to value and good credit scores who aren’t being taken care of.    A couple of responses to that:

• In certain areas of the country, prices have fallen up to 50%.    So, it takes a LOT of equity for someone to still have a LOT of equity in their house.
• If you know someone who has a good chunk of equity in their house and needs a mortgage but isn’t getting taken care of, I’ve got two items of information I’d like you to pass on to them.   My phone number is (616) 292-7559 and my e-mail address is tvanderwell@straighttalkaboutmortgages.com.   I’d love to talk to them about how I can help them out.

Have a good day!

Tom Vanderwell

Origination Funding May Increase as Credit Restrictions Ease in 2Q10, Analysts Predict : HousingWire

A recent set of research focusing on 2010 strategies for investors of agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) by analysts at Barclays Capital finds that credit availability for mortgage originations may increase in the next six to 12 months.

However, the situation will remain tight in the next three to six months, they add, as the market grapples with ongoing risk aversion sentiments, loan repurchases stabilization and new regulatory procedures that will need this time to take hold.

“In particular, in H210, there could be a meaningful extension of conventional credit to currently under-served segments,” write the analysts in their Agency MBS Outlook 2010, such as “the substantial population of borrowers with low LTV but only mid-range FICOs (700-740).”

Technorati Tags: Mortgage Market, Mortgage Rates, Housing Wire, Barclays

And a Happy Thanksgiving to you too!

You know, I guess there’s a lot we could argue about in terms of whether the economy is recovering or going downhill or what, but we do have a lot to be thankful for.

I’ll more thoughts on that in my Mortgage Market Week in Review – Thanksgiving Edition…….

Sign up for it by sending an e-mail to mortgagemarket@aweber.com.

It’s free!

Tom Vanderwell

Just in Time for Holidays: Another Dire Economic Forecast – Economy * US * News * Story – CNBC.com

David Rosenberg, who used to be Merrill Lynch’s chief economist and now works for Gluskin Sheff of Canada, told CNBC Tuesday that the US economy is mired in an economic crisis that shows only scant signs of abating.

“We’re in a form of Depression,” Rosenberg said in a live interview. “Depressions…typically happen after a prolonged period of credit excess morphs into a collapse and you get asset deflation. We had asset deflation and we had a contraction in private-sector credit.”

Rosenberg is just the latest well-known expert—including New York University’s Nouriel Roubini and Pimco bond fund’s Mohamed El-Erian—to warn that the economy remains mired in either no growth or slow growth that will last several years.

Technorati Tags: Mortgage Market, Thanksgiving

Mortgage Market Share

Let’s look at a couple of data points from this chart (thanks to Calculated Risk for it):

• In 2006 (the peak of the market,) Fannie, Freddie and Ginnie (VA, FHA etc.) were approximately 50% of the market.
• In 2009, the three of them account for 90% of the market.

Is anyone concerned about the government controlling 90% of the mortgage market?

Or maybe I should rephrase the question – is anyone ELSE concerned about the government controlling 90% of the mortgage market?

Tom Vanderwell

Technorati Tags: Mortgage Market, Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac

Searching for Direction – in Mortgage Rates….

Technorati Tags: Mortgage Rates

So what happened in the market today?

A Yawner

Mortgage Rates

Some thoughts on today’s mortgage market

Some ramblings about mortgage rates

Mortgage Market Update, Mortgage Rates

Mortgage Market Update

The market is esssentially on hold until this afternoon, waiting for the Fed.   As I’ve talked about previously, a couple of reports came out and they weren’t good.

Reactions – this is continuing reinforcement of the fact that the economy isn’t doing well and has gotten worse a lot more quickly than many people thought.

Recommendations – lock all loans.   The volatility in the credit markets is still extremely high (as evidenced by negative rates on 3 month Treasuries).   While the potential for lower rates is there, in my mind, the defiict spending, on going financial issues and the increased government borrowings put more pressure on the upside than on the downside.

Stay tuned,

Tom Vanderwell

Mortgage Market Update for 12-4-2008

Mortgage Rates Have been updated.

Rates took a nice drop downward today.   Mainly because of the speculative story that got leaked about how the Treasury is going to lower rates.   For more information on that, read 4.5% Mortgage Rates and Will it really help?

Recommendations – as the volatility of the market continues and increases, the risk that this could backfire is getting higher and higher.   Therefore, I’m recommending that you lock all loans…..

Stay tuned!

Tom Vanderwell

Mortgage Market Update for 12-3-2008

Mortgage Rates have been updated.

Reactions and Recommendations:

Reactions – volatility continues to plague the markets and the overall economic news (like I’ve discussed earlier) remains quite negative.   The stock market seems to be doing an every other day bi-polar switching between negative and positive moods and the results are showing.   Some of the internal signals are showing that the “shine” is coming off of Paulson’s effort to buy mortgages and keep mortgage rates low.

Recommendations – due to the volatility and the ongoing stress in the financial markets, I’m recommending that you lock all loans.

I’ll keep in touch, let me know if I can be of help.

Tom Vanderwell