Bernanke says he erred in gauging mortgage fallout
by Tom on November 24, 2008
in Uncategorized
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke acknowledges he was wrong in believing that there would be limited fallout to financial markets from risky mortgages that soured after the housing market’s collapse.
“I and others were mistaken early on in saying that the subprime crisis would be contained,” Bernanke said in an article in the Dec. 1 issue of The New Yorker magazine.
“The causal relationship between the housing problem and the broad financial system was very complex and difficult to predict,” he said in the piece titled “Anatomy of a Meltdown
Bernanke says he erred in gauging mortgage fallout.
Can I get a great big….
REALLY?
Tom
Mortgage Market Week in Review
by Tom on October 17, 2008
in Market Musings, Mortgage Market Week in Review, Uncategorized, banks
Well, here we are and it’s time for another Mortgage Market Week in Review. This week, we’re going to talk about consumer spending, consumer confidence, the new normal, where’s the bottom? and why interest rates have had a 1 percent up and half percent down swing since last week Wednesday.
Consumer Spending – Retail Sales came out and surprise! They were down by 1.2%. With all of the gloom and doom that is being preached in the mainstream media, is it any wonder that people are pulling back? Nope. But something that I think is missing from the discussions is a simple question. Are (or were) people spending more than they were making? I believe that a pretty convincing case can be made that our society was living on credit and spending more than they made for too long. It appears that it’s starting to catch up with us.
Consumer Confidence – The same goes here. The mainstream media is preaching gloom and doom and consumer confidence is down, way down. Are there cases where the mainstream media are overdoing things? Absolutely. However, I was telling my wife the other night that I think being a mortgage guy watching the news about the economy is sort of like being a nurse (she is) watching her parent be a patient (she did this week – Mom is fine). She said she can readily believe that. The media is overdoing things, but frankly there are a lot of really ugly things going on. I’m not going to go into them, but if you want to read up on them (and keep yourself up at night), let me know and I’ll point you to some good sites on the web to read up on them.
The new fundamentals in mortgage rates. What in the world happened to mortgage rates? Last Wednesday, they were at 5.875%, they climbed to a high of 6.875% and then dropped back to 6.375% by today. A couple of thoughts:
1. As the government, not only ours but virtually all governments in the world, has gone on a huge borrowing spree, that has shifted the dynamics and made mortgage backed securities not nearly as attractive as they used to be. That pushes the price down and the rates up.
2. Sell, Sell, Sell. This is going to be a little confusing. It is estimated that between September and October of 2008, $103 Billion (that’s with 9 zeroes if you are counting) have been redeemed out of hedge funds. So what does that mean? That means that literally tons of stocks and bonds had to be sold to attempt to maintain the proper capital conditions. So what? So that means that that it was frankly a fire sale of virtually everything. Stocks, bonds and everything were on sale. When everyone is selling and very few are buying, that pushes the price down and what happens when the price of bonds go down (all together now – the rate goes up!) So we’ve seen, and I think we’re going to continue to see a disconnect between mortgage rates and the economic fundamentals. Things like jobs and retail sales and such won’t have nearly as much of an impact on mortgage rates as they have, instead we’re going to see rates be impacted more by the dynamics in the stock and credit markets. I have to tell you, I think that paranoid schizophrenic is a kind term for the markets lately. So, hang on to your hats!
3. The cost of government borrowings. I think long term (2 weeks to 12 months) we’re going to see rates edge up more than down because of the cost of government borrowings. As they say in Congress, $250 Billion here, $750 Billion there, before long it adds up to real money. And before long, the government floats so much debt (bonds) out there that supply outpaces demand and the when supply outpaces demand, rates go up.
Check out right HERE if you want a copy of today’s rates off my blog.
So what does that mean? Frankly, if you find a rate that works for you and a program that you can get approved on, don’t get greedy and try for too much. Also, keep in very close touch with your lender if you do float an interest rate. Did you know that you can sign up to get e-mailed rates on a daily basis? Check out Straight Talk. Call me if you want to talk about your particular situation.
The new normal - I read an article the other day (read it here) that talks about getting the credit markets back to normal functioning. I hear lots of people talking about how we need to “support the housing market” so that house prices return to normal. I don’t hear anyone talking about what “normal” should we have. Does anyone even ask the question that I think needs to be asked?
“Are we merely in a cyclical recession where things will bounce back to the way they were, or are we in a structural recession?”
Let me lay out three reasons why I believe that this is a structural recession and the country is going to look different when it’s all done:
1. The financial system was built on too much of a system of leverage and that has blown up in a big way. The new banking system will still lend, but for the foreseeable future it will be significantly less leveraged and significantly more conservative.
2. The days of easy money for consumers are over. I was talking to someone the other day who asked me if the mortgage market was dead. He was surprised when I told him that we had plenty of money available but you had to meet four criteria:
a. You needed to have a downpayment or equity in your house (with approximately 15 million households owing more on their house than what they could sell it for, that limits the market).
b. You need good credit. Not necessarily great credit but if you don’t have credit scores in the 700’s, expect for it to be more expensive.
c. You need verifiable income. No more stated income, no more 3 months self employed, none of that.
d. Then you can get a reasonable mortgage in relation to your income.
3. The “Poverty Effect” – Much had been made of the “wealth effect.” That was where people felt more inclined to spend extra if they had more equity in their house and a larger balance in their 401K plan. Well, right now, they are upside down on their house and they have seen the value of their 401K drop by 40%. That makes them feel poorer so they spend less.
Where’s the bottom? We got a couple of reports on housing that frankly showed that we aren’t close to the bottom yet. New Home starts, new home permits, foreclosure levels, builder expectation levels all came in at levels that indicate we aren’t close to the bottom yet.
So where does that leave us? A couple of thoughts:
1. There is still mortgage money available but it is available for fewer people than it was even 2 to 4 months ago.
2. Mortgage rates are very volatile and it is important that if you are going to be in the market for a mortgage that you watch the market closely and “grab it” when it makes sense.
3. Ask yourself a question: Which would you rather do:
a. Pay $350,000 for a house now and get a mortgage rate of 6.375% for 30 years.
b. Wait until next year, spend $325,000 for the house but get a mortgage rate of 7.375% for 30 years?
Because you might very well spend less on a house next year, but you might also have to pay a higher rate.
And I’m going to leave you on that note. If you have questions, let me know.
Thanks!
Tom Vanderwell or e-mail me at straighttalkaboutmortgages@gmail.com
Quote of the week: “It’s not that I want to punish your success. I just want to make sure that everybody who is behind you, that they’ve got a chance for success too,” Obama responded. “My attitude is that if the economy’s good for folks from the bottom up, it’s gonna be good for everybody … I think when you spread the wealth around, it’s good for everybody.” said to “Joe the Plumber” in response to Joe’s complaint about Obama’s plan raising his taxes.
The Tangible Difference
by Tom on October 15, 2008
in Education, Mortgage Matters, Uncategorized
The following post was written by Dan Green, one of two other lenders who write with me at Bloodhound Blog. You can find more of what he writes here. Reposted with his permission.
The Tangible Difference That A Good Loan Officer Can Make
Posted on July 9, 2008
Filed under Selecting A Mortgage Planner
Read the complete post or link to it <!– | TrackBack (0) –>
Here’s a secret about rate shopping: all loan officers worth their salt give “great rates” because, otherwise, we’d be out of business. Most mortgage rates are a commodity, after all, so their levels are set by the market — not by the lender.
This is why home buyers would be well-served to get past “rate” and get onto the important stuff like choosing a responsible mortgage product, or choosing an appropriate structure.
When we get past the rate part of everything, it becomes clear that it actually matters from where a person gets those “great rates”. This is because in the mortgage business, there’s a well-known math formula:
(Great Rate) + (Poor Mortgage Structure) = (Financial Failure)
Now, to be candid for a minute — if you’ve never had a quality mortgage experience, this formula reads like a complete crock, I know; structure is silly, right? Well, I understand that line of thinking so let me add an objection-killer to the mix:
Getting responsible mortgage planning advice comes at the same interest rate and with the same loan fees as getting no mortgage planning advice. And most times, it gets delivered for less.
People often overlook this point, thinking that loan officers are like lawyers, where more skill means a higher the “bill rate”. This is false — it actually works the other way. Truly great loan officers understand that the client-servicer relationship is a long-term one whereas struggling loan officers just “needs to make money fast”.
The expert doesn’t charge you more for his time because it’s not the deal he’s after — it’s the relationship. The expert knows that you’ll need 8 mortgages or more in your lifetime and he wants to be the first phone call that you make on all of them; the average loan officer only focuses on the first one.
It’s a counter-intuitive twist, but people usually get better advice at lower prices from experts than from run-of-the-mill loan officers. Remember, the experts don’t have to pump up rates or fees to be profitable — they have their big book of clients that assures them of it.
And so, just like that, we’ve changed the math formula we look at earlier to something better:
(Great Rate) + (Sound Mortgage Structure) = (Better Outcomes)
Now, for an added twist on the math, remember that “rate” and “structure” are only two parts of the mortgage process. They’re two important parts, of course, but they’re not the only parts. There’s also what happens after the rate and structure are set.
And strangely, for as important as interest rate is to a lot of people, many of them tend to forget what their rate is shortly after locking it in. Instead, what they remember most from their mortgage is the process and what happened after their rate got locked.
Author’s note: Next time you’re with friends, you can test this theory. Ask a homeowner about their mortgage rate and they’ll fumble. But, ask them about their mortgage experience and then watch what happens.
- Were phone calls and emails returned immediately?
- Were regular status updates delivered to everyone involved?
- Did the money show up in time for the closing?
- Did the final mortgage terms match the original agreement?
It’s the answers to questions like these that define a person’s mortgage experience.
In another way, comparing interest rates between lenders is like comparing menus between restaurants — you never know how good the food really is until after you’ve eaten. It’s no wonder that trendy restaurants fail at such a high rate; it’s for the same reason that loan officers do. All packaging, no product.
So, because rate and fees are generally within a tight range from lender to lender, it tells us that home buyers may be better served to shop for expertise instead. And if you’re not sure whether your loan officer is an expert in his field, chances are, he’s not.
Expert loan officers will often give better service at a lower cost than their peers, and they’ll also give you piece of mind for a smooth closing. And in the end, it’s the latter part that matters most — the lowest guaranteed rate doesn’t matter a bit if the money never shows up at closing.
Mortgage Market Week in Review – on a Wednesday?
by Tom on October 8, 2008
in Market Musings, Mortgage Market Week in Review, banks
Yeah, I know it’s only Wednesday, but when I looked at my schedule for the rest of the week, I realized that I wasn’t going to be in one place long enough or have the time to sit down and write this update, so I decided that I better do it today. In addition to that, we’ve had plenty of news in the last couple of days. So, here are some thoughts about the markets, the housing market, perception and reality.
The markets – I think that it’s safe to say that none of us have seen this type of stock market declines in our lives. I wanted to bring up a couple of points about the markets:
1. It’s very important, when looking at long term investing, to keep a rational view of things. If you aren’t going to need the money for 25 years, don’t make decisions based on fear and panic that is currently swirling around in the markets. Look at the long term and make decisions for the long term.
2. Stop listening to the main stream media. There are many things where they don’t know what they are talking about and they love to paint a darker and more scary picture because it helps ratings. I was listening to a local AM radio talk show yesterday while driving between appointments and was struck by a couple of things:
a. Morning talk show hosts shouldn’t be giving out advice about FDIC insurance. The facts as they were stating them were just plain wrong.
b. Someone who is 44 years old (they said so) called in and said that on Monday (one of the lowest points in the market in the last 5 years) he sold everything in his 401K plan and moved it to cash. If I had the time, I would have called in and told them a thing or two. I was shocked at how much fear is taking over for rational long term planning.
3. I’m 43 (yeah I know, I’m over the hill) and I want to answer the question a lot of people are asking me right up front. WHAT HAVE YOU DONE WITH YOUR 401K PLAN?
a. Nothing. That’s right nothing. When I set up my 401K and my various IRA’s from my different former employers, I diversified it well and spread it between an annuity and various other funds.
b. I’m still putting 4% of my income in there to get the company match.
I’m not going to need the money for 25 years, so I’m not the least bit worried about what the numbers look like right now. I know that over time, a well diversified portfolio will do just fine.
Is there a lot of fear out there? Yep, there is. Is some of it justified? Yep, some of it is. Is the emotional panic that the main stream media is stirring up something that is going to cause me to change my investing habits? Nope.
Now a few thoughts about the housing market:
Any time that the markets seem to undergo a dramatic shift, I always try to look back and ask myself, what has changed over the last 2 weeks. As far as the housing market, what has changed? Take a minute and think about it…..
Well, have you come up with anything that has changed for the housing market?
Have you?
Nope, I’ll bet you haven’t. Why? Because the fundamentals of the housing market haven’t changed in the last two weeks. Let’s look at where we’re at in the housing market right now:
1. We’re still dealing with too much inventory in most markets and most price ranges (though it varies from price range to price range and from market to market).
2. We’re still dealing with too many foreclosures.
3. We’re still dealing with a smaller pool of buyers than we had due to tightened credit requirements.
4. And pricing opportunities still abound for those who are able to buy.
Is it harder to get a mortgage now than what it was 2 weeks ago? Not around me it’s not.
Have rates drifted down in the last couple of weeks? Yes they have, at least for conforming rates.
Let me make it perfectly what I’m saying:
1. If you have either a downpayment or equity in the property.
2. If you have good credit. Not necessarily great credit, but at least have good credit.
3. If you have verifiable income.
4. You will be able to get a reasonable mortgage. By reasonable, I mean one that is in line with your income and debt load.
All of the talk in the media about a credit crisis – it’s not affecting the mortgage world for loans under $417,000. Fannie, Freddie and FHA are still working just fine, thank you!
Is this a nasty time in the stock markets? Absolutely. Are a lot of banking, financial and commercial companies having problems with getting the credit that they need? Yep. Has the mortgage market frozen up like the media makes it sound? Nope.
A while back, I wrote an article on my mortgage blog, 7 Things Every Home Buyer Should Know. I went back and read through it to see if anything has changed in my outlook on that. Nothing has.
If you want to get a copy of today’s rates off of my website, click here.
Oh, one other thought. We’ve had a lot of success so far with our tax stimulus First Time Homebuyer program. I’ve attached a copy of the flier again. Fifth Third Tax Stimulus Program It’s good until the end of the year, so if I were you, I’d take a few minutes and forward it on to someone who you know who might be thinking about buying a house and hasn’t before. It will make them $750 bucks better off.
As always, if I can be of help, whether it’s with a mortgage or with help distinguishing the perception from the reality, let me know, and thanks for reading.
A Question I Often Ask Myself…..
by Tom on October 6, 2008
in Market Musings, house prices
And yes, I do occasionally talk to myself, but it’s usually just in my head, not out loud…..
So, any time when things seem to be “in turmoil,” I try to ask myself a question. That question is this:
“What has changed in the mortgage and real estate market in the last 2 weeks?”
The answer? Basically nothing.
Yep, you heard me right. Nothing. Zip. Nada.
Think about it, are there a lot of things going on in the credit markets? Yep. Are there a a lot of things going on in the stock market? Uh, yeah there are. Is the banking world in a “bit” of turmoil? Yep.
Is it harder to get a mortgage now than it was a week ago? Nope. Actually, Fannie and Freddie changed their delivery fees and essentially made mortgages a little cheaper.
So, a couple of thoughts:
1. If you have good credit, a downpayment, and verifiable income, you have and will always be able to get a reasonable mortgage.
2. The downward pressure on the economy and on consumer confidence based on what’s happening in the stock market will probably have some softening effect on housing prices. At least until we get to the point that people feel there are “bargains” out there.
3. It now, more than ever, is important to do the research you need to and make as wise and unemotional decisions and to work with professionals.
So have things changed in the last week? Yes, a lot of things have. Things that might affect your retirement account and other investments. Have things changed that affect your real estate plans?
Nope, not really.
Let me know if I can help.
Update on the Bailout….
by Tom on September 29, 2008
in Market Musings, banks
and yes, after doing some more reading on it, I do still consider it a bailout.
I’m going to put a copy of a post that Yves at Naked Capitalism wrote in italics and then my comments will be interspersed in bold print and then I’ve got more thoughts at the end.
Hope this helps you understand it better.
Congressional Charade: Changes in Bailout Bill Cosmetic, and Everyone Knows That
For a quick, one-stop synopsis of the Mother of All Bailouts (as of this month), see this readable version at Clusterstock (we’ve become a recent convert to this site).
Reader and sometimes contributor Lune, who was once a Congressional staffer and still subscribes to the the inside-the-Beltway press, provided a wrap of their coverage of the bailout bill. It makes clear that everyone understands that turning Hank Paulson’s three pager into a 110 page draft made for a nice fig leaf but made virtually no substantive difference.
Gee, why doesn’t that surprise me. They added 107 pages of rules and regulations and it’s basically just spelling out the same difference as before.
From Lune:
Well folks, we’re almost to a done deal (certainly closer than Thursday). The Hill papers are reporting that they’re getting closer in both the Senate and the House to the needed votes to pass the new bailout bill. Roll Call gives the most frank assessment of what happened over the weekend in an article entitled “Same Bailout, New Dynamic” (subtitle: Outrage Prompts Sales Effort).
All the late-night talks, last-minute demands and dramatic pronouncements aside, the fundamental structure of a $700 billion Wall Street rescue plan that Congress spent the weekend wrangling over has not changed significantly from the outline proposed by a bipartisan group of Senators and House Members last Thursday.
Did you hear that?: It’s basically the same deal as last week Thursday, just spun differently.
“This is in essence the same,” said Sen. Bob Corker (R-Tenn.), who attended those talks.
. . .
Assuming enough House Republicans agree to vote for the package, it appeared that the House could vote as early as today, while the Senate might have to wait to take it up Wednesday after Rosh Hashana on Tuesday.“If it doesn’t pass, we shouldn’t be in Congress,” a confident Sen. Judd Gregg (R-N.H.) said on Sunday, adding that he thought the measure would pass with broad bipartisan support in both chambers.
Maybe we shouldn’t be in Congress? Now there’s one of the best ideas that I’ve heard from an elected official in a while.
Members and staff disagreed about why the bones of the package stayed the same but took so long to hash out.I’ve got an idea on why it took so long – political posturing and spin that would hopefully give enough people the time to “fall in line.”
Negotiators on Saturday added a mortgage insurance program to the proposal at the request of rebellious House Republicans, though that plan is unlikely to be used by failing companies given the Treasury’s ability to take bad debt off the books of troubled financial firms.Read that last sentence again – the mortgage insurance plan is unlikely to be used – why? Because the Treasury is going to buy the debt otherwise. Look at it this way, you’ve got a 1974 Plymouth Valiant (don’t laugh, I had one in college) that has 240,000 miles on it but it still runs. If you bought insurance for it, it would cost you $1000 a year for insurance. However, if you didn’t buy insurance, and the car got totalled (became “worthless,” you could sell it to the government for $2500.) What would you do?
That means the high-stakes negotiating sessions over the weekend served mainly to generate buy-in and political cover for Republicans and Democrats.
Some Democrats said the time between Thursday and Sunday was largely wasted on back-and-forth talks that yielded few changes. In addition, there was the distraction of presidential nominee Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) inserting himself into the mix, they said. Keep in mind it’s Democrats who are saying that the Republican candidate got in the way – it’s all about spin…..
“They were very close to an agreement on Thursday,” one senior Senate Democratic aide said. “Then John McCain blew into town and blew things up for three days. Now, they have virtually the same agreement now that they had before, with a couple of options in it that [Treasury Secretary Henry] Paulson will never use.”One Senate Democratic leadership aide echoed that notion, saying, “This is largely based on the draft we had Thursday morning. … Once we got past the McCain shenanigans, the legislative process took over and people worked very hard to work out an acceptable agreement.”
. . .
House Republicans proposed a mortgage insurance idea so Wall Street could fund its own bailout. House Democrats proposed a pay-as-you-go trigger requiring a fee on financial firms if the bailout results in losses for the Treasury.The political goal was the same — both sides wanted to be able to tell constituents that Wall Street, not average citizens, would pay for the bailout.
Read that again, both sides wanted to be able to tell constituents that Wall St, not Main St. will pay. Does it say, “BOTH SIDES WANT TO MAKE SURE THAT WALL STREET PAYS?” Nope, it’s about image.
But neither proposal won out — the mortgage insurance idea will largely be a side option for the Treasury secretary, and Paulson reportedly already rejected the proposal in internal Treasury talks this summer.. . .
A senior House Democratic aide at press time estimated that Democrats could wrangle about 125 votes for the plan, meaning GOPers would need to find nearly 100 supporters in their ranks if the numbers remained unchanged.
All eyes are on the House. From another article in Roll Call entitled “House Moves Shakily Forward on Bailout“:
Both the House Republican Conference and House Democratic Caucus spent hours cloistered in closed-door sessions Sunday night as Congressional leaders tried to gather support for the package within their own ranks by putting outstanding questions about it to rest.
All eyes are on the House Republicans, who threw talks on a deal into disarray Thursday when they abandoned bipartisan, bicameral negotiations with the White House.
. . .
The bill filed tonight is “a giant improvement” over previous proposals, namely because it considerably reduces taxpayer risk, House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio) told reporters after the meeting.
“At the end of the day, there really is no taxpayer risk in this bill,” Boehner said, referring to mandated insurance provisions in the package.
Gee, how does he figure that? The US Taxpayer is going to buy $700 Billion in bad loans and there is no tax payer risk? I’m glad he’s not a commercial lender at my bank…..
Asked how many Members will vote for the bill, Boehner said he didn’t know but that GOP leaders “are working on it. … I made it pretty clear to our Members that we are supporting this.”. . .
At one point, Rep. Mike Pence (R-Ind.) [Ed: chair of the Republican Study Committee, a conservative Republican caucus in the House which has been the primary roadblock to the bailout plan] received “a tepid response” when he proposed starting from scratch and coming up with a new bill, according to one aide.
. . .
Rep. Scott Garrett (N.J.), a member of the influential Republican Study Committee, told reporters outside the Conference meeting that at least some of the conservative group will back the plan, although he said he would be voting against it.
I heard on Wood Radio this morning that Pete Hoekstra (Republican Congressman from “my” county) will be voting against it. Thank you Pete!
And finally, the wizard behind the curtain is revealed (“It’s Frank’s World, We Just Live In It“):
In case there was any doubt who was running the show over the past week, or how confused even most Members were about what was happening with the Wall Street bailout, a few lawmakers confirmed it for us.
A handful of Members — guys who are ostensibly getting briefings and actually sit in on meetings — were apparently so confused about the status of the bailout, they sunk so low as to actually join press scrums (those knots of lowly reporters crowding a particularly in-the-know Member) around House Financial Services Chairman Barney Frank to try to get a clue.
Is it any surprise that Congresspeople elected for their ability to clear brush or deliver sound bites with a photogenic smile are about to cast one of the most important votes of their careers without a clue about what they’re voting for? Winston Churchill once said “The best argument against democracy is a five minute conversation with the average voter”. The American corollary to that adds a 5 minute conversation with the average elected representative…
Now some more comments from me about this:
1. Is the Financial world in trouble right now? Yes it is. The financial services world grew to bloated heights fed on the search for new and easy debt. That party has blown up in our faces. We are now faced with a readjustment of the financial markets. I read an article this morning that said that when Sweden went through a similar problem in the early 1990’s, what they did is they looked at it and said, “Which banks are healthy enough to make it?” Then, they set up a plan to help those and set up a plan to liquidate and/or merge the ones that aren’t. I guess you could call it a sort of “Financial Triage.” For those of you not familiar with the term “triage” it’s a medical term for sorting out, at the scene of a disaster, the patients who are dead, not going to make it, can make it given immediate support and/or are fine.
2. Do I think we need to do “something” right now? Yes I do, but I don’t feel good about this. I’d really like to, instead, see something similar to the Sweden plan that would work not to keep everyone floating (because let’s face it, it’s getting to be a pretty long list of instituitions that have sunk in the last 2 weeks alone, but to keep those who are strong enough going so they can service the new financial markets that are evolving.
3. What impact will this have on the housing market and real estate market? I’m not really sure, but here’s my take on a couple of scenarios:
- If the bailout works well and truly stabilizes the markets, we could see rates holding steady and consumer confidence returning and more people venturing out into the real estate market.
- If the bailout doesn’t work well and the markets continue to remain troubled, then we’re going to see the non-Fannie-Freddie-FHA markets dry up. That doesn’t bode well for those in the higher priced markets (where over $417,000 is needed to buy a house).
- If the bailout raises concerns about the borrowing capabilities of the US Treasury (because of the massive amount of debt that it’s taking on, then I think we’re going to see rates start creeping upward.
Of those three options, I’d put the odds at 20% that the bailout works well, and split 40/40 between the other two.
Keep in mind, these are only my opinions, thoughts and ruminations about the dynamics that are literally changing on almost a minute by minute basis.
Hope this helps, let me know if you have questions,
